Prime Minister Theresa May could lose control of parliament in Britain’s June 8 election, raising the prospect of political turmoil just as formal Brexit talks begin.
Labour continue to narrow the gap on the Conservatives, with the General Election’s latest polls and odds showing that Theresa May may not actually win many more seats. The latest poll has the Tory lead at just three points over Labour, while ICM has it standing at 12 points, as Jeremy Corbyn appeared on the BBC’s Leaders Debate at the same time as Theresa May boycotted it.
May could lose 20 seats and her 17-seat working majority in the 650-seat British parliament, though other models show May winning a big majority of as much as 142 seats and a Kantar poll showed her lead widening. May would be well short of the 326 seats needed to form a government tasked with the complicated talks, due to start shortly after the election, on Britain’s divorce from the European Union.
Political campaigning restarted on Friday after being suspended in the wake of the terror attack in Manchester. Prior to the attack Labour had been gaining on the Conservatives, albeit with a healthy deficit still left to overcome.
At the start of the campaign some polls had the Tories at almost the double vote share of the Labour Party, indicating that the most likely outcome would be a landslide victory that would increase Theresa May’s current working majority of 17 in the House of Commons.
However, May’s lead has dropped from 17.8 points to below 10 in our poll tracker since she called the election on April 18. This is a rolling daily average of the last eight polls.
The gap between the two major parties has continued to narrow in our poll tracker since campaigning resumed, but different polling companies are forecasting wildly different results.